THE OPPORTUNITY COST
Treasury stock
vs. Bitcoin.
Under what assumptions does the stock outperform simply buying BTC? Put growth and valuation to the test.
HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO · EDITABLE INPUTSSet your assumptions
Compounded each year, after share dilution. Negative growth is allowed.
Stock price ÷ gross BTC backing per share. 1× means priced at backing; 2× means a 100% premium; 0.5× means a 50% discount. This is not enterprise-value mNAV.
AFTER 5 YEARS, UNDER YOUR ASSUMPTIONS
The stock comes out ahead.
The stock ends with 50.9% more value than buying BTC.
Two paths. Same starting dollars.
Illustrative paths assume smooth compounded BTC price and multiple changes. Actual prices will fluctuate.
THE HURDLE TO CLEAR
How much growth is enough?
With the multiple moving from 2× to 1.5×, this annual BTC/share change matches buying BTC. Growth above it wins.
EXPLORE THE TRADE-OFF
Where does the stock win?
Stock ending value relative to buying BTC. Positive = stock ahead; negative = BTC ahead. Select a cell to try it.
| Growth / year | 0.5× | 1× | 1.5× | 2× | 3× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | |||||
| 0% | |||||
| +5% | |||||
| +10% | |||||
| +15% | |||||
| +25% |
WHAT DRIVES THE RESULT
Three inputs. One return.
Stock value = investment × BTC price change × BTC/share growth factor × valuation multiple change.
Both investments share the same BTC price factor. Their relative outcome is determined by BTC/share growth and the change in multiple. Outperforming BTC can still mean losing dollars if BTC falls.
Model assumptions & methodology
This compares equal initial dollar investments, held for the full period, with fractional units allowed. Defaults are illustrative, not current quotes or company forecasts. Annual BTC/share growth compounds and should already account for dilution using a consistent share basis.
The valuation multiple is equity price divided by gross Bitcoin backing per share. Debt, preferred claims, operating assets and market sentiment can influence that multiple; they are not modeled separately. The calculator excludes dividends, taxes, trading fees, custody costs and additional contributions.
Stock return factor = (future BTC price / starting BTC price) × (1 + annual BTC/share growth) ^ years × (ending multiple / starting multiple). Break-even annual growth = (starting multiple / ending multiple) ^ (1 / years) − 1. Positive BTC prices and multiples are required. BTC/share growth can fall to −100%.
Understand BTC per share →Why can a treasury stock lag Bitcoin?
A shrinking premium can offset growth in Bitcoin backing per share. In a hypothetical one-year scenario with an unchanged Bitcoin price, 20% BTC/share growth and a multiple falling from 2× to 1×, the modeled stock value becomes 1.2 × 1 ÷ 2 = 0.6 of its starting value: a 40% decline. Change the assumptions above to compare other outcomes; this is not a return forecast.
Understand mNAV and valuation premiums →